高铁快运需求预测四阶段法预测思路及模型研究

Research on Four-stage Forecasting Method and Model for Demand Forecasting of High-speed Railway Express

为了促进高铁快运发展,指导高铁快运基础设施建设,文章对高铁快运需求预测方法进行研究。首先详细阐述了高铁快运需求预测的特点,基于项目特点提出了“四阶段”需求预测法思路和各阶段可采用的模型,并对重点模型的优缺点及公式进行了分析。指出了该方法在高铁快运需求预测中的应用范围,对高铁物流基地、高铁通道干线和高铁网络的规划及建设,具有指导作用和实践意义。

In order to promote the development of high-speed rail express and guide the construction of infrastructure of high-speed rail express,this paper studies the demand forecasting method of high-speed rail express.Based on the demand characteristics of high-speed rail express,this paper puts forward the idea of“four-stage”demand forecasting method and the models that can be used in each stage,and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the key models and their formulas.The application scope of this method in demand forecasting of high-speed rail transport is pointed out.It has guiding role and practical significance for the planning of high-speed rail logistics base,high-speed rail trunk line and high-speed rail network.