ARIMA-灰色耦合模型下区域医疗卫生服务量预测

Forecast of regional medical health service volume based on ARIMA-Gray coupling model

基于自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)及灰色预测等两种模型,构建ARIMA-灰色耦合模型,即分别通过两种预测结果的误差与方差不同,测算两种预测结果在耦合模型中的权重,从而测算出耦合预测结果,耦合模型预测误差小于两种预测模型。通过实证分析,预测江苏省2025年诊疗人次为155,292万人次,入院人次为3430万人次,从而为江苏省未来几年医疗卫生区域规划、卫生资源供给、卫生资源配置提供依据。

Based on ARIMA and gray prediction,the ARIMA-gray coupling model is constructed.That is,through different error and variance of two prediction results,to calculate the weight of two prediction results in the coupled model.The error of coupled model prediction is smaller than the two prediction models.Through empirical analysis,it predictes that the number of medical treatments in Jiangsu Province will be 15.5 billion in 2025,and the number of hospital admissions will be 34.3 million.Thus,provide basis for medical health regional planning,supply of health resources and allocation of health resources in the next few years in Jiangsu Province.