特朗普税改对中美价值链重构的影响

Reshaping Sino-US Value Chains under Trump’s Tax Reform Based on the GTAP-GVC Model

伴随着全球生产价值链分工的日益深化,一国经济政策的变化在很大程度上会影响全球经济格局波动,故探讨特朗普税改对中美价值链重构的影响极为必要。全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)无法精细刻画价值链政策效应的缺陷日益凸显,鉴于此,本文首次构建了标准GTAP模型与全球价值链分解核算体系(KWW,2014)的链接方法,并基于该方法量化评估了特朗普税改对中美价值链重构的政策效应。研究结果表明:(1)相对基准方案,特朗普减税导致中国GDP增速减缓0.49%,但实际总出口增长1.16%;(2)从国家层面的贸易增加值看,特朗普减税政策促进中国对美国的出口贸易增长近375亿美元,其中蕴含的中国国内增加值提升276亿美元;(3)从产业层面的贸易增加值看,特朗普减税对我国纺织品、汽车及零部件、电子产品的国内增加值、直接进口国增加值及第三国增加值均起到推进作用;(4)从区别贸易伙伴视角看,特朗普减税政策情景下中国纺织产业与所有贸易伙伴的出口贸易均显著增长,但汽车产业和电子产业截然不同,这两大产业与美国贸易增加值均呈增长态势,然而与其他贸易伙伴的出口贸易却呈减缓趋势。

With deepening labor division along global value chains,the changes in a country s economic policy will greatly affect the global economic structure.Therefore,it is of utmost importance to discuss the effect of Trump s tax reform on reshaping Sino-US global value chains.Considering the Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP)cannot describe clearly the policy effects on global value chains,we make the linkage between GTAP model and the popular value-added trade decomposition model(KWW,2014)for the first time and measure changes of trade value added of China and the USA.There are some interesting findings:(1)Relative to baseline scenario,although Trump s tax reform will slightly restrain Chinese GDP growth rate(0.49%),real export will increase(1.16%).(2)From GVC decomposition at the country level,Chinese domestic value added embodied in export to USA will grow up by 27.6 billion dollars.(3)To analyze the effect on the industry level,we take textile,motor and parts,and electronics as examples.We find the US tax cut will promote trade value added on electronics mostly,and domestic trade value added on textile grows weakly,and domestic trade value added on motor and parts increases most slightly.(4)From different trade partners,we find in China domestic value added in textile industry will increase for all partners;however,the motor industry and electronics are totally different,whose domestic value added embodied in US trade will increase while export to others will decrease.