农村低保会引致负向就业激励吗?——基于CFPS面板数据的实证检验

Does Rural Subsistence Allowance Participation Induce Work Disincentives?——An Empirical Test Based on CFPS Panel Data

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2012和2014两个年度的面板数据,使用倾向值匹配和双重差分相结合(PSM-DID)的因果识别策略,实证检验农村低保对具有劳动能力受助对象的就业激励效应,进一步考察该效应在不同群体中的异质性。研究结果发现获得农村低保会显著降低有劳动能力受助个体的就业激励,当就业状态变量纳入工作意愿信息之后,该结论仍然成立。不同的低保救助金额所产生的就业激励效应存在差异,其中,获得较低救助金额对受助个体产生的就业效应并不显著,而获得较高救助金额能够对受助个体就业产生显著的负向效应。按照社会人口特征分组后的估计结果表明农村低保在女性、年龄较大、教育水平较低以及健康状况差的群体中表现出显著的负向就业效应。按照地区分组的估计结果显示农村低保的负向就业激励在东部地区更为突出。采用多种匹配方法的分析结果表明本文上述结论具有较好的稳健性。为了缓解负向就业激励以及由此可能导致的福利依赖问题,未来农村低保制度可以尝试从以下几个方面进行政策优化:第一,通过设置就业收入豁免和救助渐退政策来降低低保金边际税率;第二,逐步解除农村低保与其他专项救助之间的捆绑关系;第三,采取更加积极精准的就业援助措施来促进低保个体参与就业。

Using national longitudinal survey data from the China Family Panel Studies in 2012 and 2014 and a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods,this article empiri cally tests the effect of rural subsistence allowance participation on able-bodied recipients’work incentive and further investigates the heterogenous work incentive effects among different groups.The article finds that rural subsistence allowance participation had a significant negative effect on able-bodied recipients’work incentive.This result still held after the work outcome variable considered additional information on working willingness.Receiving different subsistence allowance benefit amount had heterogenous work in centive effects.Specifically,receiving a high-level benefit amount had a significant negative effect on work incentive,while the work incentive effect of receiving a low-level benefit amount was not statistically signif icant.The work disincentive effects were more significant among samples who was female,older,low-edu cated,unhealthy,and lived in eastern region.All of these results were robust across different matching methods.Three types of policy initiative can be tried to control the work disincentive and welfare depen dence arising from rural subsistence allowance participation.First,the marginal tax rate benefits need to be reduced by adopting an earned income disregard and establishing a mechanism of gradual reduction of sub sistence allowance benefits after recipients find a job.Second,the reforms should consider gradually give up the tied eligibility for rural subsistence allowance and other supplemental assistance programs.Third,positive and targeted employment assistance should be provided to promote the able-bodied subsistence al lowance recipients to work.