芜湖市小儿急性肠套叠发病与气象因素的相关性研究

Study on the correlation between the incidence of acute pediatric intussusception and meteorological factors in Wuhu City

目的:探讨芜湖市小儿急性肠套叠发病与气象因素的相关性。方法:选择皖南医学院第一附属医院2014年4月至2018年3月收治的急性肠套叠患儿的相关资料,记录其发病时间;收集同期气象数据,包括每日最低气温、平均气温、最高气温、平均气压、平均相对湿度、降水量、平均风速。对样本进行统计学分析,相关分析及主成分分析由SPSS 23.0完成。应用时间序列分析方法和半参数广义相加模型(GAM)定量评估气象因素对肠套叠发病人数的影响,由R 3.4.3统计软件的mgcv完成。结果:气象因素对小儿肠套叠发病的影响具有一定的滞后性;气象因素对小儿急性肠套叠的影响从大到小依次为昼夜温差、相对湿度、平均气压、降水量、风速。发病前3 d内的气温变化和日气温较差与急性肠套叠发病相关。结论:推测气温、空气湿度、气压等气象条件可能对急性肠套叠的发生发展有相关性。

Objective:To investigate the correlation between the incidence of acute pediatric intussusception and meteorological factors in Wuhu City.Methods:The clinical data of pediatric intussusception in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College from April 2014 to April 2018 were retrospectively analyzed,and the time of onset was recorded.The daily minimum air temperature,average air temperature,maximum air temperature,average atmospheric pressure,average relative humidity,precipitation,and average wind speed were collected at the same period.The principal component was analyzed using SPSS 23.0 statistical software.Time series analysis method and semi-parametric generalized additive model(GAM)were used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on the number of cases with intussusception,and which was completed by the MGCV of R 3.4.3 statistical software.Results:The influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of intussusception in children had a certain hysteresis.The influences of day and night temperature difference,relative humidity,average pressure,precipitation and wind speed on intussusception gradually decreased in turn.The change of air temperature and difference of daily air temperature before 3 days of onset were correlated with the incidence of acute intussusception.Conclusions:The air temperature,air humidity,air pressure may be related to the occurrence and development of acute pediatric intussusception.