基于GIS的沧州市小麦干旱气象灾害风险评估

GIS-based Risk Assessment of Drought Meteorological Disasters on Wheat in Cangzhou City

基于自然灾害风险评估理论,建立以致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、灾害承受体脆弱性和防灾抗灾能力为主的评估体系,选取河北省沧州市1986—2017年的逐日降水量、小麦播种面积、减产率等指标,利用GIS分析技术和加权综合评价方法,对河北省沧州市小麦干旱气象灾害风险进行评估。结果表明,大面积的小麦干旱灾害高风险区主要分布在青县地区、沧州市区,大多是由于干旱致灾因子危险性较大所致;东部承载体易损性相对低,导致干旱灾害发生的风险较低;沧州市区西部的环境敏感性特别高,市区北部防灾减灾能力较差,市区西部的小麦干旱灾害发生风险高于东部。

Based on the risk assessment theory of natural disasters,an assessment system is established,which mainly includes the risk of disaster-causing factors,the sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment,the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and the ability of disaster prevention and resistance.The risk of wheat drought meteorological disasters in Cangzhou City is evaluated by daily precipitation,wheat planting area,production rate from 1986 to 2017,using GIS analysis technology and weighted comprehensive evaluation method.The results show that high risk areas of wheat drought disasters in large areas are mainly located in Qingxian,Cangzhou,due to high risk of drought-induced disasters.Carrier vulnerability in the east region is relatively low and leads to a lower risk of drought disasters.The environmental sensitivity in the western part of Cangzhou City is particularly high,and disaster prevention and mitigation capability in the north part of the city are also poor,resulting in higher risk of wheat drought disasters in the western part of Cangzhou City than in the eastern part.