城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡与财政负担分析——基于社保“双降”与征费体制的改革

Analysis on Urban Employees’ Basic Pension Fund Balance and Financial Burden——Based on the Reform of the Contribution Rate,Insurance Base and Collection System

我国城镇职工基本养老保险自2019年开始实行“双降”政策与征费体制改革,在减轻企业负担的同时,也对城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡造成一定影响,引起了社会各界的广泛关注。本文通过精算方法模拟测算了不同政策作用下城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡状况。研究结果显示:社保“双降”政策对城镇职工基本养老保险征缴收入产生明显的“挤出效应”,夯实费基是社保“双降”的物质基础。建议国家尽快出台夯实费基的具体改革措施,提升城镇职工基本养老保险覆盖率,并积极发展第二、第三支柱以适度提升养老保障水平。

Since 2019,the policy of reducing the contribution rate and social insurance base and the reform of collection system of urban employees'basic pension insurance in China have not only relieve the burden on enterprises,but also affected the balance of urban employees'basic pension fund inevitably,which have aroused widespread concerns.This paper simulates and calculates the balance of urban employees'basic pension fund under different policies with actuarial method.The results show that the policy of reducing the contribution rate and social insurance base has a"crowding-out effect"on the collection income of urban employees'basic pension insurance and making the social insurance base actual is the foundation of this reform.This paper suggests that the government should introduce policy measures to realize actual the social insurance base as soon as possible,improve the coverage of urban employees'basic pension insurance,and develop the second and third pillar of pension actively to raise the level of pension benefit moderately.