国家情报信息共享的演化博弈分析

A Study on National Intelligence Information Sharing Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory

[目的/意义]情报机构难以实现跨部门情报信息共享是国家情报领域亟待解决的难题,利益之争是其核心影响因素之一。从共享参与方的利益视角,探讨情报机构跨部门情报信息共享的长期稳定发展问题非常重要。[方法/过程]基于演化博弈方法,分析情报信息共享参与方的利益冲突,在不同关键参数取值情况下,描述情报信息共享策略在不同情报机构间扩散与稳定的过程和走向,分析关键性因素对情报信息共享发展方向的具体影响。[结果/结论]研究发现:多种因素通过改变机构效用的取值情况影响了情报机构在不同情境下的共享策略选择。考虑共享参与机构的利益问题,在推进国家情报信息共享的过程中,需要着眼于“增收益,降成本”,从多方面采取相应措施激励共享行为,实现国家安全领域情报机构间跨部门情报信息共享的长期稳定发展。在此基础上,给出了相应的措施建议。

[Purpose/Significance]National intelligence information sharing among intelligence agencies has always been a problem in most countries.The conflict of interests among the participants is one of its core factors.The long-term stable development of intelligence information sharing across the national security-related intelligence agencies is discussed.[Method/Process]Based on the evolutionary game theory,this paper analyzed the conflict of interests between participants in national intelligence information sharing.Considering the different key parameters,the paper described the development and stabilization process of intelligence information sharing between members of different departments.Then the influence of those key factors on the developing direction of intelligence information sharing is analyzed.[Result/Conclusion]This paper concludes that by changing the value of the participants’payoff,multiple factors may influence the behavior choice of intelligence agencies in different situations.Hence,corresponding measures focusing on“the profit increase and cost reduction”should be taken in promoting the national intelligence information sharing behaviors so as to realize its long-term stable development.