人文社科期刊载文量与影响因子关系比较研究——以美术设计学与情报学期刊为例

A Comparative Stady on the Relationship Between the Volume of Papers and Impact Factor of Journals in Humanities & Social Science

[目的/意义]研究载文量与影响因子的关系,研究其时间演变,尤其是不同学科载文量与影响因子关系的演变,可以比较分析其发展趋势及变迁原因,这方面的研究目前比较缺乏。[方法/过程]该文以美术设计学期刊和情报学期刊为例,基于中国知网引文数据库,综合采用回归分析、状态空间方程、贝叶斯向量自回归模型分析它们的关系及其演变。[结果/结论]载文量与影响因子之间同时存在正向负向作用机制;美术与设计学期刊、情报学期刊的载文量与影响因子呈负向互动关系;期刊载文量应该维持稳定发展状态;美术与设计期刊一定程度上发展滞后于情报学期刊;在文献计量学时间序列数据研究中要慎重对待回归结果。

[Purpose/Significance]There is a great significance to study the time evolution and regularity of the relationship between the impact factors and the article quantity of the journal,especially the evolution of the relationship between the amount of papers and the impact factor in different disciplines. Researchers can compare and analyze the development trend and the reasons for the change. At present,there is a lack of research in this area.[Method/Process]Taking the Journal of art and design science and the Journal of intelligence as an example,based on the Chinese Citations Database,the relationship and its evolution are analyzed by the regression analysis,the state space equation and the Bias vector auto regression model.[Result/Conclusion]The results show that there is a positive and negative effect mechanism between the volume of papers and the impact factor;there is a negative interaction relationship between volume of papers and the impact factor in the journals of art and design;there is a negative interaction between the volume of papers published in the intelligence term and the impact factor. The volume of papers should maintain the stable development state. In the study of bibliometrics time series data,the regression results should be treated with caution.