基于同一地区传染病早期预警信号和传染病苗子事件比较分析

Comparative analysis between early warning signals of infectious diseases and infectious cluster events in the same region

目的分析2016—2018年松江区传染病早期预警信号和传染病类苗子事件的特征和关系,为优化区域传染病早期预警提供依据。方法通过"传染病自动预警信息系统"下载预警信号,通过"松江区传染病类苗子事件报告登记表"整理苗子事件,应用SPSS 16.0软件按年份、病种等因素分析。结果 2016—2018年松江区共预警传染病15类1 081次,年平均预警360次。主要预警病种为水痘、手足口病、其他感染性腹泻、流行性感冒、猩红热和麻疹等,以时间预警信号为主。2016—2018年时间预警信号分别占85.50%、 90.83%和58.41%,不同年份间的差异有统计学意义(x^2=128.96, P<0.05)。同时期共报告传染病类苗子事件19类478起,年平均159起,其中区级事件475起(99.37%),主要苗子事件为手足口病、水痘、麻疹和感染性腹泻。2016—2018年松江区水痘、手足口病、其他感染性腹泻、麻疹、流行性感冒、猩红热和疟疾的早期预警信号全部探测到其对应病种的苗子事件,符合率中位数48.52%;同时苗子事件报告还预警了百日咳、狂犬病和伤寒等疫情76起。结论松江区国家传染病自动预警系统整体运行良好,而苗子事件报告体系的预警效率更高,可作为国家传染病自动预警信息系统的有效补充。

Objective To analyze the characteristic and relationship of early warning signals and infectious cluster events of infectious disease between 2016 and 2018 in Songjiang district in Shanghai,and provide the fundamental basis for optimizing the early warning of regional infectious diseases.Methods Warning signal data was extracted from"infectious disease automatic early warning system",and infectious disease cluster events were collected from"Songjiang district infectious disease cluster events registration records".The data was analyzed in stratification of year,disease category,and other factors by SPSS 16.0.Results Between 2016 and 2018,there were 15 categories and 1 081 early warning signals in Songjiang district were signaled.The average signal number was 360 per year.The majority outbreaks that were signaled were chickenpox,food hand and mouth disease(HFMD),other diarrhea,influenza,scarlet fever,and measles.Temporal warning signals were the domi nated signals.Time warning signals from 2016 to 2018 were accounted for 85.50%,90.83%,and58.41%,respectively,and the difference between years were statistically significant(x^2=128.96,P<0.05).During the same time period,19 categories and 478 infectious disease cluster events were reported,with the yea rly average signal of 159 events,and among the 478 events 99.37%(475 events)were district level.The majority of the infectious disease cluster events included HFMD,chickenpox,measles,and other diarrhea.Between 2016 and 2018,early warning signals of chickenpox,HFMD,other diarrhea,measles,influenza,scarlet fever,and malaria detected all of their corresponding cluster events in Songjiang,and the median value of consistent rate was 48.52%.Meanwhile,the infectious disease cluster event report system also indicated 76 additional events including pertussis,typhoid,rabies and etc.Conclusion The overall status of the infectious disease automatic early warning system in Songjiang district was running successfully,but infectious disease cluster event report system had higher efficiency,which could be used as the complementary tool for the China infections disease automated-alert and response system.