气候变化背景下中国苹果适宜种植区北移西扩：基于高分辨率格点气象数据的区划分析

Areas Suitable for Growing Apples Moved Northward and Westward in China under the Background of Climate Change:Climatic Degionalization of Apple Based on High-resolution Meteorological Grid Data

利用1981-2010年5km×5km格点气象数据,基于前人研究指标,采用气候倾向率、Arc GIS空间插值等方法,对影响苹果种植的气温、降水、相对湿度等主要气候指标分布特征进行分析。首先利用一票否决式指标剔除不能满足苹果生长基本要求的不可种植区域,然后结合苹果气候区划因子评分标准,对可种植区进行适宜性评价,并分析年际间适宜区的变化特征。结果表明,总体来看,苹果可种植区为华北、西北、西南以及华东、华南的部分地区。在可种植区中,适宜区主要位于黄土高原大部分地区和环渤海地区,次适宜区主要位于华北平原和黄土高原少部分地区以及塔里木盆地和云贵高原地区,不适宜区主要分布在东北地区、长江以南大部分地区、青藏高原地区以及新疆北部部分地区。与20世纪80年代相比,90年代、21世纪00年代山东半岛、黄土高原南部由适宜种植区转变为次适宜种植区,辽蒙交界地区、云贵川交界地区、黄土高原北部以及陕甘交界处由次适宜种植区转变为适宜种植区,苹果适宜种植区变化呈现明显北移西扩的特点。

The interannual and spatial distributions of the climatic indicators affecting apple planting such as the air temperature,precipitation,relative humidity were analyzed,while climate trend rate and ArcGIS spatial interpolation were applied,based on 3h meteorological grid data of 5km×5km spatial resolution from 1981 to 2010.In detail,the unplantable areas where climatic conditions cannot meet the basic requirements for apple cultivation were excluded firstly by one-vote veto indicator.Climatic suitability evaluation was carried out for plantable areas secondly with scoring standard for apple climatic regionalization factors.The interannual variation characteristics in the suitable for growing apples areas are analyzed finally.Findings are shown as below:apple can be grown in north China,northwest,southwest and parts of east and south China;in the plantable areas,the suitable regions were mainly located in most areas of the Loess Plateau and the Bohai rim area;the sub-suitable regions are mainly located in the North China Plain and a small part of the Loess Plateau,as well as the Tarim Basin and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau;the unsuitable regions are mainly distributed in the Northeast,most areas south of the Yangtze River,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and parts of northern Xinjiang;Compared with the 1980s,in the 1990s and the 2000s,the Shandong Peninsula and the southern Loess Plateau had evolved from suitable planting regions into sub-optimal planting regions,however,the border areas between Liaoning and Mongolia,the Yunnan-Guichuan border areas,the northern Loess Plateau,and the border between Shaanxi and Gansu had evolved from the sub-suitable planting regions into the suitable planting regions.On the whole,the change was obvious that areas suitable for growing apples had moved northward and westward in China under the background of climate change.