201909号台风“利奇马”影响期间的沂沭泗流域洪水预报工作与思考

Flood forecast of Yi-Shu-Si River Basin during the influence of Super Typhoon Lekima No.201909

受201909号超强台风“利奇马”及冷空气共同影响,沂沭泗流域多个控制站出现1974年以来最大洪水过程,针对此次雨洪过程,采用实时滚动预报、历史相似洪水对比、峰量相关、多系统预报等多种方法,对流域主要控制站及湖泊进行了较为精准的洪水预报,为沂沭泗流域防汛调度及时提供了决策依据。

In September 2019,many control stations in Yi-Shu-Si River Basin have experienced the largest flood since 1974,which is affected by Super Typhoon Lekima and cold air in 2019.Aiming at the rain flood process,this paper uses many methods,such as real-time rolling forecast,historical similarity flood comparison,peak and storage correlation and multi-system forecast,to forecast flood accurately of the main control stations and lakes in the watershed,which provides decision-making basis for flood control and dispatch in Yi-Shu-Si River Basin in time.