滇中城市群城镇用地扩展驱动因素综合影响分析

Comprehensive Effect of Driving Factors of Urban Land Expansion in Yunnan Central Urban Agglomeration Area

城镇用地的扩展受到多种驱动因素的综合影响.本文以2009—2015年滇中城市群土地利用数据和社会经济统计数据为基础,基于结构方程模型构建了滇中城市群城镇用地扩展驱动因素综合影响模型,定量分析了各驱动因素对城镇用地扩展的影响路径、直接影响、间接影响及总效应,进而揭示了驱动因素对城镇用地扩展的综合影响及驱动机理.结果表明:第二产业产值、总人口、固定资产投资额、人均GDP对滇中城市群城镇用地扩展的总效应分别为0.83、0.62、0.55和0.46,是滇中城市群城镇用地扩展主要驱动因素;总人口主要通过影响第二产业产值、人均GDP和固定资产投资额间接影响城镇用地扩展,影响路径分别为0.32、0.15和0.52,并且总人口的间接影响大于直接影响;固定资产投资对城镇用地扩展的直接影响(0.63)最大,而第二产业产值对城镇用地扩展的间接影响(0.83)最大.

The expansion of urban land is affected by a combination of drivers.In this study,we used land-use data and socio-economic statistics of the Yunnan central urban agglomeration area from 2009 to 2015,based on the structural equation model,to construct a comprehensive effect model of urban land expansion driving factors in Yunnan central urban agglomeration area.We made Quantitative analysis of the impact path,direct effect,indirect effect and total effect of various driving factors on urban land use expansion,and the comprehensive impact and driving mechanism of driving factors on urban land expansion were revealed.The results show that the total output value of the secondary industry,the total population,the fixed assets investment,and the per capita GDP are 0.83,0.62,0.55,and 0.46,respectively,for the urban land expansion in Yunnan central urban agglomeration area,which is the main driving factor for the urban land expansion in Yunnan central urban agglomeration area.The total population mainly affects the expansion of urban land use by influencing the output value of the secondary industry,per capita GDP and investment in fixed assets,the impact paths are 0.32,0.15,and 0.52,respectively.The indirect effect is greater than the direct effect;the fixed assets investment has the greatest direct impact(0.63)on urban land expansion,while the secondary industry output value has the greatest indirect impact(0.83)on urban land expansion.