经济增长、货币政策和企业债务——我国企业债务资本比率及其稳态水平的一个估计

Economic Growth,Monetary Policy and Firm Debts——An Estimate on Chinese Firm Debt-capital Ratio and Its Steady-state Level

为考察货币政策传导是否通畅,特别为分析以产出为目标和以债务存量为目标的政策对稳态存在性的影响,本文围绕传统增长模型的微分方程进行拓展,在生产函数中加入了债务存量。在本文的模型中,在以产出为目标的货币政策下,稳态能够实现;如果政策制定者允许债务目标在长期内实现,稳态有可能达到;如果政策制定者要求在短期内必须实现控制债务的目标,债务约束将使得资本积累难以向稳态水平接近,导致政策向产出目标传导不通畅。结合我国情况,建议保持资本积累向稳态水平靠拢所需要的债务灵活性,发挥债务的自动回调机制。

To investigate whether monetary policy has transmitted smoothly,especially considering the impact of output target and debt target of policy upon the existence of steady state,this paper extends the differential equation in growth model to incorporate firm debts.In our model,under output targeting,steady state is achievable;it is possible to have steady state if the policy makers target firm debts during a long horizon;if policy makers urge that the targeted firm debts must be fulfilled immediately,debt constraint does not allow capital accumulation to reach the steady state,the transmission of monetary policy to output target is,therefore,not smooth.Combining China′s current situation,debt flexibility is required to allow capital accumulation to its steady state level.In targeting output,debt will fall endogenously even the policy does not target debts.