城市化发展与居民家庭消费水平的关系研究——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析

On Relationship between Urbanization and Household Consumption——Based on an Empirical Analysis of Countries along “the Belt and Road”

纵观发达国家经济发展历程,伴随着其城市化进程的不断推进,居民的消费水平也会不断提高。本文以“一带一路”沿线国家为样本,构建面板数据模型,采用上海商学院“一带一路”数据库和世界银行统计数据库数据,对城市化发展与居民消费水平的关系进行实证检验与分析。研究得出:在城市化发展的中高期阶段,城市化发展对居民消费水平确实有显著的促进作用;但是在城市化发展的初期阶段,即当城市化率在30%以下时,居民消费水平随着城市化水平的升高而降低。因此,发展中国家在城市化发展中只有以人为本、合理布局,协调发展大中小城市,才能真正实现可持续发展。

Throughout the economic development of developed countries,with the continuous progress of urbanization,the consumption level of residents will continue to improve.Taking“the belt and road”countries as samples,we build panel data model to test the relationship between urbanization and household consumption level empirically by using the data of Shanghai Business School’s“the belt and road”database and the world bank statistical database.The results show that urbanization does promote residents’consumption level significantly,but when the urbanization rate is below 30%,the consumption level will decrease with the increasing of urbanization.Therefore,developing countries can achieve real sustainable development only when they develop urbanization with people-oriented,rational layout and coordinated development of large and medium-sized cities.