基于AFC数据的城市轨道交通突发事件客流影响分析

Impact analysis of passenger flow under urban rail transit emergency conditions based on AFC data

分析突发事件下城市轨道交通客流影响程度对客流预测与疏散具有重要的现实意义。在明确城市轨道交通突发事件研究范围的基础上,基于AFC数据,提出突发事件下轨道客流时空影响范围的识别方法。从OD客流和进站客流2个角度,构建突发事件客流影响模型,定量分析突发事件对轨道交通客流的影响程度。结合北京市轨道交通AFC数据,确定出突发事件影响范围,提取客流时空分布特征,定量分析轨道交通客流受影响程度,并对模型结果进行分析及验证。

It has great practical significance for passenger flow prediction and evacuation to analyze the influence degree of passenger flow in urban rail transit emergencies.This paper proposed a method to analyze the passenger flow impact of the urban rail transit emergencies.Firstly,it defined the research scope of the urban rail transit emergencies.Then,a method to identify the spatiotemporal influence range of passenger flow in an emergency was proposed based on automatic fare collection(AFC)data.From the perspective of origin-destination(OD)passenger flow and inbound passenger flow,an influence model of passenger flow was constructed,which can quantitatively analyze the influence degree on passenger flow of urban rail transit in an emergency.Finally,combining with AFC data of Beijing rail transit,this paper determined the influence range of passenger flow,and extracted the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of passenger flow.The quantitatively analysis was made on the influence degree of passenger flow,and the model results were analyzed and verified effectively.