基于云理论的北京市水环境承载力综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Beijing Water Environment Carrying Capacity Based on Cloud Theory

随着人类社会和经济的发展,水资源消耗及水污染的问题很大程度上降低了人类的生活质量,开展水环境承载力的研究可为协调人与自然的矛盾,以及城市经济的绿色发展提供理论依据和数据支持。基于驱动力-压力-状态-响应模型构建评价指标体系,结合熵权法求取指标权重,运用云理论推算出2004年~2017年北京市各年的水环境承载力水平。结果表明,近14年来,北京市的水环境承载力整体呈现上升趋势,2004年最低,2010年达到较高水平后趋于稳定;虽然北京市水环境承载力水平得到了一定的改善,但整体仍处于超载状态。

With the development of human society and economy,the water consumption and water pollution have greatly reduced the quality of human life.The research on the carrying capacity of water environment can provide theoretical basis and data support for coordinating the contradiction between human and nature and the green development of urban economy.Based on the driving force-pressure-state-response model,the evaluation index system for evaluating water environment carrying capacity is constructed,and combined with the entropy weight method to obtain index weight,the water environment carrying capacities of Beijing in 2004-2017 are calculated by using the cloud theory.The results show that,(a)the water environment carrying capacity of Beijing has shown an upward trend in past 14 years,the carrying capacity in 2004 is the lowest,and after reaching a higher level in 2010,it tends to be stable;and(b)although the carrying capacity has been improved to some extent,the overall situation is still overloaded.