中国经常账户演进的原因、趋势与应对

Causes, Trends and Countermeasures of China’s Current Account Evolution

全球金融危机爆发后,中国经常账户顺差显著缩减。本文从贸易结构转变、行业层面调整、储蓄-投资缺口的缩小、实际有效汇率升值等角度出发,解释了中国经常账户调整的原因及由正转负长期趋势的形成。受全球经济放缓及中美贸易摩擦不确定性的持久影响,未来中国经常账户仍可能再次出现季度逆差。一旦经常账户顺差消失,将对出口拉动的中国经济构成显著下行压力;长期还将导致国内资产价格的波动性上升;同时,央行货币政策操作框架也将发生深刻改变。现阶段,中国政府应警惕经常账户演进背后的潜在风险,继续深化经济结构改革、防范化解国内金融风险,最大限度地减轻经常账户逆转对中国经济带来的不利影响。

China’s current account surplus has shrunk significantly since the global financial crisis. This paper explains the reasons behind China’s current account adjustment and the formation of a long-term trend from positive to negative from the perspectives of trade structure transformation, industry level adjustment, reduction of savings-investment gap and real effective exchange rate appreciation. China’s current account is likely to present another quarterly deficit in the future due to global economic uncertainty and lingering trade frictions with US. Once the current account surplus disappears, it will put significant downward pressure on China’s export-led economy. It will also lead to increasing volatility in domestic asset prices. Meanwhile, China’s central bank’s monetary policy operating framework will also undergo profound changes. Nowadays, the Chinese government should be alert to the potential risks behind the current account evolution, continue to deepen economic structural reform, prevent and defuse domestic financial risks, and minimize the adverse impact of the current account reversal on Chinese economy.