计及不确定性的综合能源系统运行效益综合评估方法

Comprehensive evaluation method for integrated energy system operation benefits considering the impact of uncertainties

在能源互联背景下,多能互补、协同供应的综合性能源系统(Integrated Energy System,IES)将成为未来能源系统的主要形态。对综合能源系统进行运行效益综合评估,可为综合能源系统各参与主体的规划决策和运行调度提供重要判据,对引导综合能源系统高效稳定运行和有序、可持续发展具有重要意义。文章面向未来能源系统运行的低碳环境,考虑可再生能源出力波动、分布式供能设备随机故障等多种不确定因素,计及电、气、热网特性,构建了含系统运行经济性及可靠性、可再生能源消纳、环境效益等指标的综合能源系统运行效益评估体系。通过综合利用混合蒙特卡洛抽样和最优能流模拟,对RTS79-40节点综合能源测试系统进行计算分析。相关仿真结果验证了所提出方法的可行性和有效性。据此给出了不同场景下综合能源系统规划设计须重点关注的问题和分布式供能系统的配置建议。

Under the background of energy interconnection, the integrated energy system with multi-energy complementarity and coordinated supply will become the main form of energy system in the future. The comprehensive evaluation of the operational benefits of integrated energy system can provide important criteria for the planning, decision-making and operational dispatch of the participants in the integrated energy system, and is of great significance for guiding the efficient,stable operation, orderly and sustainable development of the integrated energy system. In view of the low-carbon environment of future energy system operation, considering the uncertainties of new energy output fluctuation, random faults of distributed energy supply equipment and taking into account the characteristics of electricity, gas and heat network, this paper establishes a comprehensive energy system operation benefit evaluation system with the indicators of system operation economy, reliability, new energy absorption and environmental benefits. The RTS79-40 Node integrated energy testing system is calculated and analyzed by using mixed Monte Carlo sampling and optimal energy flow simulation. Relevant simulation results validate the feasibility and validity of the method described in this paper. Based on this, some suggestions for the planning and designing of integrated energy system in different scenarios are given.