1983―2015年中国西南地区干旱综合损失率与SPI的关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Drought Comprehensive Loss Rate and SPI in Southwest China from 1983 to 2015

【目的】揭示1983―2015年中国西南地区干旱综合损失率与SPI的关系。【方法】利用1983―2015年西南地区旱灾资料研究了西南地区旱灾在1983―2015年的变化规律及发生概率;利用40个代表站点1960-2015年的月降水量资料计算月、季和年尺度SPI值,进一步研究了1983―2015年不同时间尺度的干旱综合损失率与SPI的相关关系。【结果】1983―2015年西南地区干旱的受灾率、成灾率、绝收率和综合损失率的多年平均值分别为11.79%、5.84%、1.30%和4.86%,除云南的旱灾呈不显著上升趋势外,其他省份和整个西南地区的旱灾呈下降趋势,各省旱灾情况较为接近,其中云南和贵州的旱灾情况比广西和四川严重,西南地区干旱综合损失率大于6%的概率为29.8%。【结论】除云南省干旱综合损失率与5月SPI值最为相关外,其他省份和西南地区干旱综合损失率都与8月、夏季和年尺度的SPI值的相关性最大。

【Objective】This paper aims to reveal the correlation between the comprehensive drought loss rate and SPI in southwest China from 1983 to 2015.【Method】Based on the drought disaster data in Southwest China from 1983 to 2015, the law of change and occurrence probability of drought disaster from 1983 to 2015 were studied. The meteorological data in 40 stations from 1960 to 2015 were applied to calculate the monthly, seasonal and yearly SPI. Then the correlation coefficient between SPI in different time scales and the drought comprehensive loss rate was analyzed.【Result】The perennial average value of disaster rate, hazard rate, rejection rate and comprehensive loss rate are 11.79%, 5.84%, 1.30% and 4.86%. Except for Yunnan province, the drought disaster in other provinces and the whole of southwest showed a trend of decrease. From 1983 to 2015, drought disaster situation was close in the four provinces of the southwest, and drought disaster in Guizhou and Yunnan was more serious than in Guangxi and Sichuan. The probability of drought comprehensive loss rate >6% in Southwest China was 29.8%.【Conclusion】It can be drawn the conclusions that the correlation between comprehensive loss rate and SPI was largest in May in Yunnan, and in other provinces the comprehensive loss rate has good correlation with August, summer and yearly SPI.