国内外乙烯产业发展趋势研判

Development Trends of Global Ethylene Industry

近年来在全球经济周期和乙烯产业周期的双重推动下,石化市场供需两旺,带动产业投资兴起。未来5~10年随着国内外大量新增乙烯产能陆续投产,阶段性供大于求的矛盾将迅速激化,乙烯产业竞争格局面临重大变化。本文通过定量分析,判断当前我国乙烯产业总体处于市场周期的成熟前期,并从供需关系、投资主体、原料结构、竞争市场和营销模式等方面论述未来乙烯产业发展的新趋势。

In the last few years,the demand and supply of the petrochemical industry are prosperous due to the promotion of both global economy cycle and ethylene industry cycle.The prosperity drives the booming of industry investment.With a large amount of new capacity gradually being put into production at home and abroad in the next 5~10 years,the periodic contradiction of ethylene surplus will be exceedingly prominent.There will be significant changes in the ethylene industry competition situation.Through quantitative analysis,this paper points out that the ethylene industry in China is in the premature period of the market cycle.In addition,this paper demonstrates the new trends of the ethylene industry development in the future from the five aspects of supply-demand relationship,investors,raw material structure,competitive market and marketing patterns.