社会水循环通量演变及驱动力分析——以保定市为例

Analysis of social water cycle flux evolution and driving force ——taking Baoding City as an example

社会水循环是自然-人工二元水循环的重要环节,社会水循环通量作为社会水循环的基本研究内容之一,在水资源短缺的背景下,把握其演变规律,揭示使其演变的驱动因子,对水资源的规划、利用和管理具有重要意义。基于2000—2015年保定市的气象数据和社会经济数据,采用信息熵法对保定市的用水结构进行分析,结果表明保定市的用水结构趋向均衡的方向发展;有效降水的演变没有明显规律,随降水的丰枯变化。从自然环境和社会经济两方面选取了20个驱动因子,采用灰色关联分析法定量分析,结果显示:第一产业产值比重和有效降水与社会水循环通量的灰色关联度分别为0.748和0.705,表明这两个因子对社会水循环通量演变的驱动力最大;自然环境因子和农业用水因子与社会水循环通量的关联度数值均处于较高水平,表明这两类因子对社会水循环通量演变的驱动力较强。

The Social Water Cycle(SWC) is an important link of the natural-human dualistic water cycle. Social water cycle flux is one of the basic research contents of SWC, it is of great significance to grasp the law and distinguish the driving factors of its evolution under the background of water shortage,and which will contribute to water resources planning,utilization and management. Based on the meteorological and socio-economic data of Baoding City from 2000 to 2015, the water consumption structure is analyzed by method of the information entropy,which shows that the develop direction of the water consumption structure tends to be balanced. The evolution of effective precipitation has no significant laws and it varies with the high flow year and low flow year of precipitation. From the natural environment and social economy, 20 driving factors are selected and quantitatively analyzed by grey correlation analysis. Results show that the gray relational grades of the proportion of primary industry output and effective precipitation are biggest among the 20 factors, 0.748 and 0.705 respectively, indicating that these two factors have the largest driving force to the evolution of social water cycle flux. Moreover,natural environmental factors and agricultural water consumption factors have the relatively high gray relational grades, indicating that they have a relatively strong driving effect on the evolution of social water circulation flux.