水电工程反恐风险评估指标体系及风险分级方法

Anti-terrorism risk assessment index system and risk classification method for hydropower project

为了确定水电工程防御潜在恐怖袭击风险评估指标和分级标准,为水电工程反恐怖防范风险评估与防控提供理论依据,对水电工程反恐风险评估指标体系及风险分级方法开展研究。基于水电工程特点和恐怖袭击风险评估过程模型与相关标准,运用系统安全分析与评估方法,构建水电工程反恐怖风险评估指标体系,确定各指标量化分级区间及权重,并建立水电工程防御潜在恐怖袭击风险分级标准。研究结果表明:水电工程潜在恐怖袭击风险指标主要有生命损失、风险人口、被袭击可能性等;按照风险评估指数P,可将水电工程潜在恐怖袭击风险等级分为Ⅰ~Ⅳ级。

In order to determine the risk assessment indexes and classification standards of defensing the potential terrorist attack on hydropower project and provide the theoretical basis for the anti-terrorism risk assessment as well as prevention and control for hydropower project,the anti-terrorism risk assessment index system and risk classification method for hydropower project is studied.Based on the characteristics and the model for the risk assessment process of terrorist attack as well as the relevant standards,an anti-terrorism risk assessment index system for hydropower project is established and the quantified classification intervals and weights of all the indexes concerned are determined by means of the relevant system safety analysis and assessment method,while the risk classification standards of defensing the potential terrorist attack on hydropower project is established as well.The study result shows that the main indexes for the potential terrorist attack on hydropower project are loss of life,population at risk,possibility of attack,etc.,and then the risk classification of the potential terrorist attack on hydropower project can be divided in to the classes of Ⅰ~Ⅳ in accordance with the risk assessment index P.