不确定条件下新建机场业务量风险预测分析

Aviation Business Prediction and Risk Analysis for New Airport Under Uncertainty

民航业务量预测是机场建设可行性研究的重要数据,通常对于业务量预测中存在的不确定性与风险问题,多采用确定的结果表示,其实这是对不确定性的一种简化。本文针对新建机场业务量预测中存在的历史数据缺失以及对未来发展判断存在的不确定性,以菏泽机场为例,利用动态聚类分析方法筛选出与其相似的机场,通过模拟回归建立货邮吞吐量的预测模型;在此基础上,针对模型中的随机因素,通过蒙特卡洛模拟对机场货邮吞吐量进行风险分析。本文提出的方法可为机场规划建设提供定量分析的理论依据,研究结果可为相关决策者提供数据支撑。

Civil aviation traffic forecast is an important part of airport construction.In the prediction of civil aviation business volume,the uncertain and risk problems are expressed by certain data that is actually a simplification of uncertainty.This paper focuses on the historical data missing in passenger transport volume forecast and the uncertainty in the future development.Taking Heze airport as an example,the dynamic cluster analysis method is used to screen out similar airports and then prediction model of cargo throughput is established through multiple regressions.For the random factors of the model,Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyze the risk of airport passenger.The proposed method in this paper can provide theoretical basis for quantitative analysis of airport planning and construction,and the research results can provide data support for relevant decision makers.