基于DMSP/OLS夜光数据的中国省域经济发展时空变化

Spatio-temporal Variation of Economic Development at Provincial Level in China Based on DMSP/OLS Satellite Imagery

利用社会经济数据计算得到各省综合发展指数(IDI),并建立IDI和平均灯光指数(ALI)的一元线性回归模型;再利用回归模型估算1992年、2001年和2013年各省的IDI;然后对3个年份的IDI进行全局自相关和局部自相关分析,以研究20多a来中国省域经济发展的时空格局。结果表明:①Moran’s I指数均大于0.3,说明IDI具有显著的空间集聚特征;IDI热点均集中于东部地区,冷点均集中于西北部地区,说明总体上中国东西部经济发展差异较大。②Moran’s I指数呈递减趋势,说明IDI的空间集聚程度降低,热点区向中部推移,冷点区缩小,表明20多a来中国经济发展集聚程度显著降低,贫富差距缩小,省域经济发展趋于均衡。

In this study, we adopted socio-economic data to establish an integrated development index(IDI) for each province, and established a linear regression model to explore the relationship between IDI and ALI at first. Then, we used the regression model to estimate the IDI of each province in 1992, 2001 and 2013. In order to investigate the spatio-temporal variation of economic development at provincial level in China from 1992 to 2013, we employed the global spatial autocorrelation method and local spatial autocorrelation method to analyze the IDI in these three years. Major conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1) Moran’s I indices of each year are greater than 0.3, indicating that IDI has significant spatial clustering characteristics. Hot spots of IDI are concentrated in the eastern region, and cold spots are concentrated in the northwest region, indicating that China’s economic development generally varies considerably.(2) Moran’s I index shows a decreasing trend, indicating that the degree of spatial agglomeration of the IDI is decreasing. Hot spots have moved to the middle of China, and cold spots have narrowed, indicating that the agglomeration degree of China’s economic development has decreased significantly from 1992 to 2013, the gap between the rich and the poor has narrowed, and the economic development at provincial level has become more balanced.