中国产业结构调整视角下的碳减排潜力分析——基于EIO-LCA模型

Analysis of Carbon Reduction Potential from Perspective of Industrial Structure Adjustment in China: Based on EIO-LCA Model

论文采用EIO-LCA模型对中国各行业部门从生产到供应链再到消费环节的直接碳排放和隐含碳排放进行分析,并构建碳减排潜力模型评价产业结构调整所产生的减排潜力。研究表明:(1)基于能源消费的中国直接碳排放主要来自行业交通运输、仓储和邮政行业部门、其他服务业、建筑业、批发零售与住宿业。(2)从生产链视角来看,建筑业是隐含碳排放最大的行业,进一步对其隐含碳排放来源进行分解,结果发现生产链中的通信专业设备制造业、金属冶炼和压延加工品及煤炭采选产品3个行业部门的排放量对建筑业隐含排放量的贡献最大。(3)从消费需求视角来看,居民消费需求的隐含碳排放占比最大,政府消费需求、资本形成和出口的占比维持在20%左右。(4)中国直接碳排放和隐含碳排放潜力较大的行业部门位于供应链上游。

This paper analyzes the direct carbon and implicit carbon emissions of various industries using the EIO-LCA model in China from production,supply chain to consumption.Carbon reducing potential models are employed to evaluate the effect of reducing potential caused by industrial restructuring.The results show that:(1)China’s direct carbon emissions based on energy consumption mainly come from the industry’s transportation,postal industry sectors,other services,construction,wholesale,retail and accommodation.(2)From the perspective of production chain,the construction industry has become the industry with the largest implicit carbon emissions.This paper further decomposed the sources of its implied carbon emissions,and found that the emissions of three sectors in the production chain,namely,communication equipment manufacturing industry,metal smelting and rolling processing products,and coal mining products,contributed most to the implied carbon emissions of the construction industry.(3)From the perspective of consumer demand,the implied carbon emissions of the consumer demand accounted for the largest proportion,while the proportion of government consumption demand,capital formation and export is maintained at about 20%.(4)China’s industries with high potential of direct and implicit carbon emissions are located in the upstream of the supply chain.