技术创新视角下人口老龄化对经济增长的门限效应

The Threshold Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth from the Perspective of Technological Innovation

人口老龄化会对经济增长产生怎样的影响?文章在梳理相关文献基础之上,利用中国2005-2015年省级层面的面板数据,以技术创新、人力资本、资本-劳动要素禀赋结构、人口老龄化作为门限变量,构建门槛回归模型,系统考察在不同的门限效应下,人口老龄化对经济增长的影响效应。结果显示:以技术创新为门槛变量时,其对经济增长存在明显的"驼峰"效应;以要素禀赋结构转变为门槛变量时,则存在两个门限值,并且门限值越高,人口老龄化对经济增长的规模效应越显著;以人口老龄化程度为门限变量时,人口老龄化程度越深,其对经济增长产生"阶梯式"递减效应;与此同时,以人力资本为门槛变量时,其对经济增长产生负效应,负效应随着教育年限的提高而逐渐弱化。

How will population aging affect economic growth? Based on relevant literature, this paper collected the panel data(2005 to 2015) of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government in China(excluding Tibet Autonomous Region). With technological innovation, human capital, capital-labor factor and population aging as threshold variables, this paper constructed a threshold regression model, and systematically examined the extent to which the population aging affected the economic growth. The results showed that the technological innovation has an obvious "hump" effect on the economic growth;the factor endowment structure produces two thresholds, and the higher the threshold, the more significant is the aging population on the economic growth;the more seriously the population ages, the more obvious is the "stepwise" diminishing effect on the economic growth;the human capital has a negative effect on the economic growth, and the negative effect gradually weakens as the number of years of education increases.