中国天然气资源供应风险与对策

Risk evaluation on domestic natural-gas resource supply and countermeasures

伴随着天然气需求量的快速增长和天然气对外依存度的不断提高,我国天然气资源供应的长期安全、持续性和稳定性正引起政府和天然气供应及消费企业的重视。开展天然气资源供风险评价研究,识别出天然气供应主要风险点和风险程度并提前规划防范非常重要。为此,基于国际和国内天然气生产、供应和消费及其发展趋势的历史数据,在前人研究成果的基础上,采用量化分级评价体系法按风险大小和影响程度进行评级,从中判断出影响我国天然气供应风险的重要因素并提出了相应的对策和解决方案。研究结果表明:①通过分析评估选取了资源保障程度、储产比、对外依存度、价格波动、市场集中度、地缘政治风险等6项天然气资源供应风险评价指标,分别对其进行了量化分级,认为我国天然气资源供应风险主要体现天然气资源保障度较低、对外依存度较高、进口来源过于集中导致政治风险较大等方面;②根据风险评价研究及其结果,提出了相关对策建议,包括加强国内天然气资源的综合调查,加大国外重要天然气资源基地的潜力评价和风险投资分析,加快推动进口气源多元化体系构建和国际合作,创新金融机制、价格机制和储备机制,加大天然气地质理论、技术和装备的创新力度等。

With the rapid growth of natural-gas demand and the continuous increase of external gas dependence degree,the long-term security,continuity,and stability of domestic gas resource supply attract attentions from Chinese Government,and gas supply and consumption enterprises.It's quite important to evaluate the supply risk,identify the main risk point and risk degree,and finally make a plan and countermeasures in advance.So,the key risk factors were identified on the basis of historical data on domestic and foreign gas production,supply and consumption,and development trends,combined with many previous research results.Then,they were rated from two aspects of risk scale and influencing degree by means of quantitative classification and evaluation methods.Finally,several important factors influencing domestic supply risk were pointed out.Results show that(1)six indicators to evaluate the supply risk are selected by virtue of analysis and evaluation,and quantitative rating is carried out on these indicators,indicating that this risk is mainly embodied in terms of lower guarantee degree of gas resources,higher external dependence degree,and excessive concentration on import source leading to greater political risk;and(2)many countermeasures are made,such as,strengthening comprehensive investigation on domestic gas resources,increasing potential evaluation and risk investment analysis on imported gas resource bases,promoting to construct diversified systems of import source,enlarging international cooperation,innovating finance mechanism,and price and reserve mechanism,and intensifying some innovations on geological theories,technologies,and technical equipment.