基于灰色-马尔科夫模型的高边坡变形预测应用

Application of high slope deformation prediction based on grey-markov model

以京沪高速公路改扩建工程(莱芜—临沂)K565+914—K566+587(左幅)边坡为研究对象,研究了岩质高边坡二次开挖变形规律,并分别采用灰色GM(1,1)和灰色-马尔科夫模型对边坡位移实测数据进行建模分析,计算边坡位移变形预测值,后与常见的泊松曲线模型预测值进行对比,并通过工程实测值确定其预测精度。研究结果表明:在预测4个月内岩质高边坡变形用灰色-马尔科夫模型预测精度较高,平均精度可达到98.1%,具有很好的适用性。

The paper takes the Beijing-Shanghai expressway reconstruction and extension project(Laiwu-Linyi)K565+914—K566+587(left frame)slope as the research object.Gray GM(1,1)and gray-markov model were used to model and analyze the measured data of slope displacement,calculate the predicted value of slope displacement deformation,analyze the prediction accuracy of the two models,comparison of predicted values of Poisson curve model.The results show that the predicted value of the gray-Markov model is close to the measured value.The prediction of high rock slope deformation within 4 months is more accurate with the gray-Markov model,the average accuracy can reach 98.1%,which has good applicability.