城市轨道交通发展与城市人口变迁特征相关性研究

Research on the Correlation between the Development of Urban Rail Transit and the Characteristics of Urban Population Change

为进一步明确城市轨道交通与城市发展的相互影响作用机理,量化分析线网空间变化与人口分布变化的关系。根据城市规划、线网规划统计不同时间节点各片区的人口规模、线路规模,对人口规模、线网规模应用Moran’s I模型分析其空间自相关性,并对其自相关性进行相关性检验。通过建模分析,初、近、远期的线网空间结构与人口分布变化特征均呈现出显著的空间自相关特性,各时期线路规模的Moran’s I指数为0.431 3,0.367 3,0.289 9,人口规模的Moran’s I指数为0.482 1,0.411 0,0.349 5,两组数据的Pearson相关系数为0.995。研究结果表明,城市空间发展、城市人口变迁作为交通需求的主要相关因素,影响轨道交通线网规划、建设时序、线路路由,反之轨道交通进一步支撑了城市空间拓展、促进轨道交通沿线发展,两者具有较强的相关性;城市发展呈现先中心城区、后向外围拓展的趋势,而轨道交通建设时序也以市区骨干线优先,之后采用市域线向外延伸辐射。本研究结论可作为线网规划、主要客流走廊、建设时序分析的依据。

In order to further clarify the interaction mechanism between urban rail transit and urban development, the relationship between the spatial changes of the network and the changes of the population is analyzed quantitatively. According to the urban planning and the network planning, the population size and line scale of each zone at different time nodes are counted. The spatial autocorrelation of population and network scale is analyzed with Moran’s I model and its correlation test is conducted. The modeling analysis shows that the spatial structure and population distribution of the initial, near and long-term network have significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics. The Moran’s I index of line scale in each period is 0.431 3, 0.367 3 and 0.289 9. The Moran’s I index of population size is 0.482 1, 0.411 0 and 0.349 5. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the two sets of data is 0.995. The research results show that urban spatial development and urban population change are the main relevant factors of traffic demand, which affects rail transit network planning, time sequence of construction and routes selection. Otherwise, rail transit further supports urban space expansion and promotes the development of rail transit with strong correlation between them. Urban development tends to focus on central city first and then expand the outer space;while the construction of the rail transit is also prioritized by the urban backbone lines, and then the urban lines are extended outward. The conclusions of this study can be used as the basis for line network planning and analysis of main passenger flow corridors and construction time sequence.