谁重启了“限购令”?——基于倡导联盟视角分析我国新一线城市限购令的政策演变

Who Reinstated the House Purchase Restrictions?

自2010年以来,“限购令”政策呈现出由实施、取消再到重启的变化。这种行为可以被解释为政策主体——政府的一种经济调控性手段。但是,在这个复杂的政策变迁中,社会成员的价值观念也发挥着关键性作用。不同于早期的政策理论,倡导联盟分析框架注重分析社会不同利益群体的偏好和需求。本文以倡导联盟框架深入剖析我国新一线城市限购令政策的变迁,将受限购令影响的社会成员分为无节制的财富最大化联盟和合理有序的社会分配联盟两大部分,着重分析两大联盟之间的信念差异、互相博弈、互相学习,以及它们的博弈对政府政策的影响,认为今后房地产市场调控的总基调不会改变,随着两大联盟的沟通学习,房地产市场将趋于理性。

Policy changes have certain rules to follow.The"purchase restriction order"is a policy introduced along with the overheated property market.Since 2010,the"purchase restriction order"policy has changed from implementation,cancellation to restart.This kind of behavior can be interpreted as the main body of policy——a kind of economic regulation and control means of the government.However,in this complex policy change,the concepts and values of social members also play a key role.Different from the early policy theories,the alliance analysis framework is advocated to focus on the analysis of the preferences and needs of different social interest groups,which has important enlightenment and reference significance for the analysis and solution of practical problems.In order to explore the actual drivers behind the resumption of"purchase restriction order",this paper proposes an alliance framework to deeply analyze the changes of the policy of purchase restriction order in China's new first-tier cities.