基于半定量风险评估和专家会商法的重点传染病疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of key infectious diseases based on semi-quantitative risk assessment and expert consultation method

目的评估2019年广东省面临的重点传染病疫情风险,并分析风险相关关键要素。方法收集整理相关信息,采用半定量风险评估和专家会商法对疫情风险进行研判。结果2019年广东省面临的登革热病例境外输入风险将常年存在,本地疫情可能于5—6月开始出现。人禽流感疫情可能维持在较低水平。诺如病毒感染发病水平可能高于2017—2018冬春季。季节性流感可能存在冬春季和夏季流行高峰。手足口病发病强度可能高于2018年或持平,重症及死亡可能维持较低水平。麻疹疫情可能较2018年小幅增长。水痘和流行性腮腺炎疫情可能较2018年下降。基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒病输入风险持续存在。不排除脊髓灰质炎、疟疾、中东呼吸综合征、埃博拉病毒病等病例输入以及输入引起本地传播的可能。结论2019年广东省应特别关注登革热疫情,重点关注人禽流感、诺如病毒感染、季节性流感、手足口病等疫情,需要关注麻疹、水痘、流行性腮腺炎疫情,以及基孔肯雅热等输入性传染病相关疫情。

Objectives To assess the epidemic risk of key infectious diseases in Guangdong Province in 2019 and analyze key risk factors.Methods Relevant information was collected and the epidemic risk was judged by semi quantita tive risk assessment and expert consultation method.Results The risk of importing dengue cases abroad to Guangdong Province will exist year round in 2019 and the local epidemic may begin in May and June.The human avian influenza epi demic may remain at a low level.The incidences of norovirus infection may be higher than those in winter and spring of 2017-2018.Seasonal influenza epidemics may peak in winter,spring and summer.The incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease may be higher than that in 2018 or remain flat,and the severity and mortality may be maintained at a lower level.The measles epidemic may increase slightly compared with 2018.The outbreaks of chickenpox and mumps may be lower than those in 2018.The risks of importing cases of Chikungunya and Zika virus disease persist.The risk of importing polio myelitis,malaria,Middle East respiratory syndrome,and Ebola virus disease may not be excluded,which may have the possibility of local transmission.Conclusions In 2019,Guangdong Province should pay special attention to the dengue fever epidemic,focus on human avian influenza,norovirus infection,seasonal influenza,hand,foot and mouth disease,and need to pay attention to measles,chickenpox,mumps,and imported diseases such as Chikungunya fever.