地方政府的粮食储备意愿及其影响因素

The Analysis on Grain Reserve Willingness of Local Governments and Its Influencing Factors

本研究以地方政府粮油物资储备的财政支出衡量地方政府的粮食储备意愿,对地方政府的粮食储备意愿及其影响因素进行了定量分析。研究发现,在2009年后地方政府的粮食储备支出在全国粮食储备支出中的比重急剧下降,并且在地方粮食储备支出中,主产区占了很大比重。2009-2014年地方政府的粮食储备意愿存在显著的正自相关性,而在2015-2017年地方政府的粮食储备意愿不存在显著的自相关性。这表明,粮食安全省长责任制强化了地方政府的粮食储备责任,从而在一定程度上打破了地方政府在粮食储备上的观望状态。基于传统面板模型和空间面板模型的估计结果表明,常住人口规模、城镇人口比重和粮食产量对地方政府的粮食储备意愿具有显著的正向影响,而交通状况对地方政府的粮食储备意愿具有显著的负向影响。

This study measured the grain reserve willingness of local governments by the financial expenditure of grain,oil and materials reserve of local governments,and made a quantitative analysis of the grain reserve willingness of local governments and its influencing factors.The study found that the proportion of local government’s grain reserve expenditure in the national grain reserve expenditure dropped sharply after 2009,and in the local grain reserve expenditure,the main producing areas accounted for a large proportion.Local government during the period of 2009-2014 food reserves will exist remarkable is the correlation,and the local government during 2015-2017 food reserves will not exist significant since the correlation,this shows that the governor of food security responsibility system to strengthen the grain reserves in local government responsibility,broke on the part to the local government in the waitandsee state grain reserves.The estimation results based on the traditional panel model and the spatial panel model show that the scale of resident population,the proportion of urban population and grain output have a significant positive impact on the grain reserve willingness of local governments,while the traffic condition has a significant negative impact on the grain reserve willingness of local governments.