城市综合灾害风险双重组合评价方法

Study on double combination evaluation method of urban comprehensive disaster risk

为解决不同单一方法在评价综合灾害风险方面存在的结果不一致性问题,提出一种基于排序值和评价值双重组合的评价方法。首先,选用7种典型单一方法评价中国31个省、自治区和直辖市(不含港、澳、台地区)的综合灾害风险,得出各方法的评价结果,并据此对城市综合灾害风险进行基础评价;然后,以KENDALL协和系数、Spearman等级相关系数和综合支持度系数为一致性检验标准,计算各单一评价法间的密切相关程度;其次,运用双重组合评价模型对单一评价结果进行组合评价并反复检验;最后,得出高度协调一致的综合灾害风险排序值和评价值。结果表明:双重组合的评价方法能够有效降低评估过程中的随机偏差和系统误差,得出高度收敛性和可信性的风险评价值和排序值更贴近实际。

In order to solve the problem of inconsistency in the evaluation results obtained by different single methods,an evaluation idea based on the combination of sequencing values and evaluation values was proposed.Firstly,seven typical single methods were used to evaluate the comprehensive disaster risks of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in China,and the basic evaluation of urban comprehensive disaster risk was carried out based on the evaluation results by each method.Then using KENDALL concordance coefficient,Spearman grade correlation coefficient and comprehensive support coefficient as criteria of consistency test,the close correlation degree between each single evaluation method was calculated.Besides,the double evaluation model was applied to combine the single evaluation results and repeat the tests.Finally,the highly coordinated ranking and evaluation values of comprehensive disaster risk were obtained.The results show that the dual combination evaluation method can effectively reduce the random deviation and systematic error in the evaluation process,and obtain the risk assessment value and ranking value of high convergence and credibility,which provides a new idea for the assessment of urban comprehensive disaster risk.