产业绿色转型能缓解城乡收入不平等吗?——基于政府规制的耦合互动分析

Can green industrial transformation alleviate income inequality between urban and rural areas?——Coupled Interaction Analysis Based on Government Regulations

产业绿色转型发展是我国经济绿色增长的产业基础,降低城乡收入不平等是保证经济稳定发展的必要条件,通过分析两者的作用机制可帮助我国实现促增长与保公平的双重目标。笔者采用中国2007年至2016年省级面板数据,通过PVAR(向量自回归)模型验证产业绿色转型与城乡收入不平等的双向耦合关系,并通过偏效应、边际效应延伸分析政府规制行为带来影响。借助PVAR模型分析指标间双向互动关系可总结为:(1)产业绿色发展指数、城乡收入差距、环境规制和能源消耗均受到各自滞后一期影响,呈现较强连续性和累积性,其中环境规制与城乡收入差距表现最强;(2)依据系统GMM估计和脉冲响应函数得出,产业绿色转型对城乡收入差距表现为先正后负,最终有利于降低城乡收入不平等;(3)通过方差分解得出,环境规制是各变量(排除自身影响外)方差贡献最大因素,分别影响着城乡收入差距、产业绿色转型和能源消耗其贡献值依次为44.71%、16.02%和26.07%;(4)利用Granger因果检验得出,环境规制为能源消耗的直接Granger原因,能源消耗为产业绿色发展直接Granger原因,而产业绿色转型、城乡收入差距互为双向Granger因果关系,从而环境规制间接影响产业绿色发展和城乡收入不平等。论文结尾就推动产业绿色转型与缩小城乡收入差距给出对策。

The development of green industrial transformation is the industrial basis of green economic growth in China.Reducing income inequality between urban and rural areas is the necessary condition to ensure stable economic development.Using the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2016,the author validates the two-way coupling relationship betweenindustrial green transformation and urban-rural income inequality through the PVAR(Vector Au-toregression)model,and analyzes the impact of government regulation through partial effect and marginal effect extension.With the help of PVAR model,the two-way interaction among the indicators can be summarized as follows:(1)the green development index of industry,the income gap between urban and rural areas,environmental regulation and energy consumption are all affected by their lagging period,showing strong continuity and accumulation,among which the environmental regulation and urban-rural income gap show the strongest performance;(2)according to GMM estimation and impulse response function,the green transformation of industry is achieved.The income gap between urban and rural areas is positive and negative,which will ultimately help to reduce the income inequality between urban and rural areas;(3)Through variance decomposition,it is concluded that environmental regulation is the biggest factor contributing variance to each variable(excluding its own influence),affecting the income gap between urban and rural are-as,green industrial transformation and energy consumption respectively,with contribution values of 44.71%,16.02%and 26.07%;(4)Granger causality test is used.The results show that environmental regulation is the direct Granger cause of energy consumption,energy consumption is the direct Granger cause of green development of industry,and green transformation of industry and income gap between urban and rural areas are two-way Granger causality,so environmental regulation indirectly affects green development of industry and income inequality between urban and rural areas.At the end of the paper,it gives some countermeasures to promote green industrial transformation and narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.