互联网金融、政府干预与经济增长质量——基于面板门限回归模型的实证检验

Internet Finance, Government Intervention and the Quality of Economic Growth——Empirical Test Based on Panel Threshold Regressive Model

政府对互联网金融的适度干预对经济增长质量的影响效应,引起了国内外的重点关注。本文以政府干预作为门限变量,通过面板门限回归模型,实证考察了我国互联网金融在政府干预背景下对经济增长质量的影响。研究发现:第一,互联网金融与经济增长质量之间存在显著的门限效应,适度的政府干预有利于互联网金融的健康发展和经济增长质量的提升。第二,把政府干预分为政府干预能力和政府干预动机,单独做门限检验分别存在单一和双重门限。第三,政府干预能力小于门限值时,互联网金融发展更加有利于经济增长质量的提升;反之,影响效应明显下降。政府干预动机维持在门限值之间时效应最大,小于第一门限值效应次之,跨越第二门限值效应最弱。适度的政府干预,使得互联网金融对经济增长质量的提升效应整体呈现倒U型。

The impact of government moderate intervention in internet finance on economic growth quality is the focus issue. Taking government intervention as a threshold variable, this paper empirically examines the impact of internet finance on the quality of economic growth in the context of government intervention through panel threshold regression models. The study found that: First, there is a significant threshold effect between internet finance and economic growth quality. Moderate government intervention is conducive to the healthy development of internet finance and the improvement of economic growth quality. Second, the government intervention is divided into the intervention ability and intervention motivation. The threshold test is conducted separately and there is a single and double threshold effect. Third, when the government intervention capacity is less than the threshold value, internet finance is more conducive to improving the quality of economic growth. On the contrary, the effect is significantly reduced. When the government intervention motivation is maintained between the thresholds, the promotion effect is most obvious;when it is less than the first threshold, the effect takes second place, and when it is larger than the second threshold, the effect is the weakest. Moderate government intervention makes the promotion effect presenting an inverted U shape.