源于我国银行业的政府或有债务:一个规模测度

China’s Banking Government Contingent Liability:A Size Measurement

2008年的全球金融危机和欧洲债务危机给整个世界经济所带来的影响超乎想象,特别是源于政府对银行业担保而导致的或有债务,其不断转化为显性和直接债务并给许多国家带来了严重的财政压力。为了有效预防来自银行的政府或有债务风险,本文构建了一个指标来测量与单家银行、各自独立的多家银行以及相互关联的多家银行相关的政府或有债务并最终得到源于我国银行业的政府或有债务规模的一般模型。基于此模型,不仅可以实现对我国银行业的政府或有债务进行风险评估,还可以测度我国银行业给政府所带来的潜在财政成本,甚至可以根据模型中的变量关系有针对性地给出降低银行业的政府或有债务风险的对策建议。

The impacts of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the debt crisis in Europe on the entire world economy were beyond imagination, especially the contingent liabilities caused by the government’s guarantees to the banking industry, which constantly transformed into explicit liabilities and have brought serious financial pressure to many countries. This paper constructs the Size of Banking Government Contingent Liability(SBGCL) model to measure government contingent liabilities related to an individual bank, independent banks and related banks, and finally obtains a general SBGCL model. Based on this model, we can not only realize the risk assessment of China’s banking industry’s government contingent liabilities, but also measure the potential financial cost brought by China’s banking industry to the government. We can even make targeted countermeasures to reduce banking government liability risk according to the relationship between the variables in the model.