中国国际收支经常账户变动趋势研究——兼析主要发达经济体国际收支经常账户顺差持续性收窄的演化进程及应对经验

Research on the Trend of China’s Current Account Change——The Evolution and Experience of Continuous Narrowing of Current Account Surplus in Major Developed Economies

2018年第一季度,中国经常账户逆差341亿美元,这是自中国入世以来经常账户季度记录首次出现逆差的情况。2019年经常账户再次恢复顺差。近年来,中国的产业结构优化升级使得中国对外贸易结构发生深刻变化,对中国的经常账户收支状态产生了长远影响。伴随着全球经济增长动能减弱引致外需疲软、中美贸易摩擦等外部因素的影响,未来短期内中国经常账户大规模顺差状况难以持续。比较中国同德国、日本和美国的发展路径,从长期看中国经常账户变动有望步入新常态,进入平衡波动阶段,整体维持在合理区间。

In the first quarter of 2018,China's current account deficit reached US$34.1 billion,which is the first time recorded quarterly since its accession to the WTO.The current account surplus resumed again in 2019.In recent years,the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure has made a profound change in China's foreign trade structure,which has a long-term impact on China's current account balance of payments.With the decreasing of global economic growth momentum,weak external demand and Sino-US trade frictions,the large-scale current account surplus of China will be hard to sustain in the near future.Comparing the development paths of China with Germany,Japan and the United States,China's current account changes are expected to enter a new normal in the long run,enter a stage of balanced fluctuation,and remain in a reasonable range as a whole.