金融开放背景下实际资本管制能力对金融危机影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Impact of Actual Capital Control Capabilities on Financial Crisis in the Background of Financial Opening

本文旨在研究金融开放背景下政府实际资本管制能力对金融危机的影响。本文选取30个发达国家和31个新兴市场国家1980-2014年的数据作为研究样本,采用面板数据的多元Logit模型进行实证研究,得出以下结论:名义资本管制并不能有效降低新兴市场国家金融危机发生的风险,只有实际资本管制水平的提升才能有效降低金融危机发生的可能性,而提升实际资本管制水平则需要加强政府实际资本管制能力。本文建议,新兴市场国家应将资本管制纳入宏观审慎政策框架中,以提高政府对资本流动的实际管制能力,防止大规模资本流动导致金融危机。

The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the government’s actual capital control capacity on the financial crisis in the context of financial openness. This paper selects 30 developed countries and 31 emerging market countries from 1980 to 2014 as the research samples, and uses the multi-logit model of panel data for empirical research. The results show that nominal capital control can’t effectively reduce the risk of financial crisis in emerging market countries. Only the improvement of actual capital control level can effectively reduce the possibility of financial crisis. To raise the level of actual capital control, it is necessary to strengthen the actual capital control capacity of the government. This paper suggests that emerging market countries should incorporate capital controls into the macroprudential policy framework to improve the government’s ability to actually control capital flows and prevent financial crises.