从压力回应到构建共识：焦点事件的政策议程触发机制研究——基于54个焦点事件的定性比较分析

From Pressure-Response to Consensus-Building: Focus Events Triggering Mechanism in Policy Agenda Setting——A Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 54 Focus Events

作为触发政策议程的重要形式,焦点事件一直受到广泛关注。先前的研究主要从理性和利益的逻辑出发,聚焦于焦点事件的事实特性,忽视了决策者的价值偏好对这一触发机制的影响。本文以修正后的多源流框架为基础,借助“信念体系”概念构建了不同政策领域的议程触发模式,并以促成公众与决策者的“共识”为标准,识别出焦点事件活跃的政策领域。通过对《中国社会舆情报告》(2012—2016)中54个焦点事件的定性比较分析发现:具体化的利益诉求是焦点事件触发政策议程的必要条件,焦点事件能否促成公众与决策者的共识,取决于聚焦能力、议题属性和决策者信念体系间的互动和影响,议题的意识形态相关性越强,共识达成的可能性越低。政府对焦点事件的反应呈现由“压力回应”模式向“共识构建”模式转变的趋势。本文提出了焦点事件基于共识触发政策议程的逻辑框架,对理解议程设置中理念和价值的作用有积极意义。

The objective of this paper is to illustrate the mechanism that focus events trigger agendas through a value-based approach instead of the rational choice approach.On the basis of revised multiple-streams theory,this paper constructs an agendatriggering model in different policy areas with the concept of"Belief System",and identifies active policy areas by"reaching consensus"between the public and decision makers.By analyzing 54 focus events from the Annual Report on Public Opinion in China(2012—2016)with QCA,the results reveal that specific interest appeal is a necessary condition for focus events to trigger policy agenda.Whether focus events make consensus depends on the interaction between focus ability,nature of issue,and the belief system of decision maker,the stronger ideologically relevant the issue,the less likely it is to reach consensus.The government's response to focus events is changing from a"pressure-response"model to a"consensus-building"model.This paper proposes a framework to explain how focus events trigger policy agendas through consensus-building approach,and explores the relationship between network participation and political stability transformation.However,this paper still has certain deficiencies.For instance,the paper lacks a complete single case analysis to supplement and verify the conclusion.Therefore,subsequent researches will be continued to consummate the theoretical framework and empirical analysis.