摘要
由于水利PPP项目投资成本大、建设周期长、投资回收期长,项目存在较高的风险,非常有必要进行风险评价.通过分析影响水利PPP项目的风险因素,构建了3个层级,8个方面因素,25个评价指标,并运用模糊层次分析法确定各项因素的权重,分析影响项目风险的主要因素,再利用物元分析理论进行评价,能够准确、合理的定量评价项目风险的大小.针对分析出来的主要风险因素和相应的风险等级,提出规避风险的有关建议,有利于合理控制水利项目的风险.
As the high investment cost,long time construction,and long payback period,it’s necessary to carry out risk assessment of PPP projects of water conservancy.Three levels,eight factors,and twenty five evaluation index to analysis the factors which influencing the risk of PPP projects of water conservancy are proposed.The weight of each factor is determine by fuzzy analytical hierarchy process.Main factors which influence the risk of PPP projects Analyzed.Using the theory of matter element analysis,the risk of the project is rationally evaluated.Finally,based on the analysis of the main risk factors and the corresponding risk level,suggests are put forward to control the risk of PPP projects of water conservancy.
作者
马维海
曾繁慧
MA Wei-hai;ZENG Fan-hui(Hefei University of Technology School of Economics,Hefei 230601,China;College of Science,Liaoning Technical University,Puxin 123000,China;Institute of Intelligence Engineering and Mathematics,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2019年第19期80-90,共11页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(61350003)
关键词
PPP
水利项目
F-AHP
物元模型
风险研究
PPP
project of water conservancy
F-AHP
matter-element model
study on risk
