粮食生产规模与效率的门槛效应及其区域差异

Study on the Threshold Effect and Regional Differences of Grain Production Scale and Efficiency

本文基于区域土地规模种植效率比较视角,采用门槛模型,分析区域粮食生产规模与效率演变的非线性特征,厘清不同禀赋区域粮食规模种植效率的差异。研究结果表明,三大区域均存在粮食生产规模与效率的门槛效应,表现为"负效应-正效应"的"U"型特征,说明我国粮食生产适度规模经营的可能性空间是存在的。进一步比较分析表明,粮食主产区生产规模扩张大大改善了生产效率,但粮食产销平衡区与主销区的粮食生产效率总体呈现衰减态势,这主要源于土地规模禀赋与技术进步相匹配程度的影响。因此,新时期进一步推进粮食生产规模与效率同步提升需要强化粮食主产省县的土地规模扩张与技术进步的匹配行为,以及粮食大户的生产激励行为。

Based on the comparison of regional land-scale planting efficiency, a threshold model was used to analyze the nonlinear characteristics of regional grain production scale and efficiency evolution, and to clarify the differences in grain-scale planting efficiency in different endowment areas. The results show that there are threshold effects of grain scale and efficiency in all three regions, which is expressed as the "U"-type feature of "negative effect-positive effect", indicating that there is room for the possibility of moderate scale operation of grain production in China. Further comparative analysis shows that the scale expansion of grain production in major grain-producing areas has greatly improved production efficiency, while grain production efficiency in grain production and marketing balance areas and grain sales areas has generally declined. This is mainly due to the degree of influence of the matching of land-scale endowments with technological progress. Therefore, to further promote the simultaneous increase in scale and efficiency of grain production in the new period, it is necessary to strengthen the matching of scale expansion and technological advancement in grain-producing provinces and counties, and grain production incentives for large grain producers.