收入群体视角下中国城镇居民消费率变动分解研究

The Research on the Decomposition of Urban Residents’ Consumption Rate Change in China from the Perspective of Income Groups

本文基于收入群体视角,利用结构分解方法,将总消费率分解为收入群体比重变动效应等七个效应,并对2010-2016年CFPS城镇居民家庭数据进行研究,得出如下结论:第一,不管基于全国数据还是东中西部地区数据,绝大多数中等收入群体比重变动效应都大于0;同时中等收入群体消费效应是抑制总消费率下降的主要因素。第二,不管基于全国数据还是东中西部地区数据,绝大多数收入群体的收入差距变动效应为负。第三,不管从平均来看,还是从不同年份来看,全国以及东中西部地区的中等收入群体和低收入群体的群体组内消费率变动效应大多数为正,而高收入群体大多数为负。本文的研究结论可为制定收入分配政策以促进消费提供理论依据。

By applying SDA method,this paper decomposes the consumption rate into seven types of effect from the perspective of income groups,and then applies this model to analyze the CFPS from 2010 to 2016.It is found:(1)The proportion of income groups effect growth is greater than 0 in most middle-income groups,and the consumption effect of the middle-income group is the major factor restraining the decrease of the total consumption rate.(2)Regardless of national,eastern,central or western region,the income gap effects of most income groups on consumption rate are negative.(3)No matter from the average perspective,or in different years,most of the consumption rate effects within groups of the middle-income and low-income are positive,while that of high-income group is negative.The study of this paper provides a theoretical basis for formulating income distribution policies to promote consumption.