全球价值链、制度质量与工业品出口技术复杂度——基于丝绸之路经济带沿线国家面板数据的实证分析

Global Value Chains, Institutional Quality and Technical Complexity of Industrial Exports: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of the Silk Road Economic Belt Countries

丝绸之路经济带建设为沿线国家工业生产嵌入全球价值链创造了有利条件。在理论分析的基础上,提出全球价值链、制度质量与工业品出口技术复杂度的理论假设,采用丝绸之路经济带沿线38个主要国家1996-2016年的面板数据进行实证检验。研究表明:融入全球价值链有助于提升工业品出口技术复杂度;制度质量对不同要素密集型工业产品出口技术复杂度的提升均有正向影响,但相对劳动密集型产品,资本技术密集型产品出口技术复杂度对制度质量更加敏感;制度质量与全球价值链嵌入度的交互作用也可以促进工业品出口技术复杂度的提升。相对于发展中国家而言,制度质量对发达国家的工业品技术复杂度的促进作用更加显著。此外,随时间的推移,融入全球价值链对丝绸之路经济带沿线主要国家工业品出口技术复杂度的提升有逐渐增强的态势,制度质量对工业品出口技术复杂度的影响逐渐由负转正。

The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt has created favorable conditions for the industrial production of countries along the Silk Road to be embedded in global value chains.Based on theoretical analysis,this paper formulates the theoretical hypothesis of global value chains,institutional quality and technical complexity of industrial exports,and conducts the empirical test using panel data of 38 major countries along the Belt from 1996 to 2016.The research shows that the embedding of industrial production in global value chains is conducive to enhancing technical complexity of industrial exports.Institutional quality has a positive impact on technical complexity of different factor-intensive industrial exports.However,compared with labor-intensive products,technical complexity of capital and technology-intensive exports is more sensitive to institutional quality.Interaction between institutional quality and the level of industrial production embedding in global value chains can also promote technical complexity of industrial exports.Compared with developing countries,institutional quality has contributed significantly to technical complexity of industrial exports in developed countries.In addition,the embedding has progressively increased the technical complexity of industrial exports of major Belt countries over time,and impact of institutional quality on the technical complexity of industrial exports has gradually turned from being negative to positive.