“国家自主创新示范区”政策的效果评估——来自准自然实验的经验证据

Effectiveness Evaluation of the Policy of “National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone”——Empirical Evidences from Quasi-natural Experiments

本文以"国家自主创新示范区"试点政策为准自然实验,采用双重差分法来评估"国家自主创新示范区"政策的绩效和效果,探讨"国家自主创新示范区"政策对区域企业创新能力的影响,并在此基础上,借助三重差分模型等方法研究"国家自主创新示范区"政策对区域企业创新能力的异质性影响,包括动态异质性因果效应和区域异质性影响。研究结果表明:第一,"国家自主创新示范区"政策显著提升了区域内企业的创新能力,反事实检验、多期DID回归、安慰剂检验等分析充分保证了这一结论的稳健性和可信度;第二,"国家自主创新示范区"政策存在显著的动态异质性因果效应,"国家自主创新示范区"政策对区域企业创新能力的影响在政策实施后几年里有不断增强的趋势;第三,"国家自主创新示范区"政策的效果存在显著的区域异质性,东部地区的政策效果明显高于中部、西部地区,相比而言,西部地区的政策效果最弱,中部地区次之。

Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the pilot policy of the "National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone",the paper evaluates the performance and effectiveness of the policy of the "National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone" by using the Difference in Difference method,that is to explore the impact of the policy of the "National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone" on the innovation ability of regional enterprises,and on this basis,the paper studies heterogeneous effect of the policy of the "National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone" on regional enterprises’ innovation capability includes dynamic heterogeneity causality and regional heterogeneity by means of the triple difference model.The results show that:firstly,the policy of "National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone" has significantly improved the innovation ability of enterprises in the region,counterfactual test,multi-stage DID regression,placebo test and other analysis fully ensure the robustness and credibility of this conclusion;Secondly,the policy of "National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone" has a significant dynamic heterogeneous causal effect,the effect has an increasing trend in the years after the implementation of the policy;Thirdly,the effects of the policy of "National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone" has significant regional heterogeneity,the policy effect in the eastern region is obviously higher than that in the central and western regions,while the policy effect in the western region is relatively lowest.