我国金融制度与经济增长之间的关系研究——基于ARDL模型的分析

Study on the Relationship between China’s Financial Institution and Economic Growth——Analysis Based on ARDL Model

本文基于我国1981~2016年的金融数据,运用主成分分析方法构建指数度量我国金融制度的变迁;根据经济增长模型,探讨了金融制度与经济增长的关系;运用适合小样本的ARDL模型研究了带有控制变量的金融制度、资本与经济增长的长期协整关系与短期动态关系。计量结果表明,金融制度在短期对经济增长有显著的影响,而在长期影响并不显著。

This paper measured the evolution of financial institution in China, by using the Principal Components Analysis Method to construct index, with the related financial data from 1981 to 2016;discussed the relationship between financial institution and economic growth, according to the economic growth model;and studied long-term co-integration relationship and short-term dynamic relationship among financial institution, capital and economic growth which embodies control variables, by using the optimum of small sample ARDL model.The results showed that, the financial institution has a significant impact on economic growth in the short term, while the long-term impact is not significant.