杜特尔特总统的对华外交议程走向与东盟的未来

President Duterte’s Agenda for His Diplomacy towards China and the Future of ASEAN

杜特尔特总统的当选为菲律宾对外政策带来了新的变化,在对待美国等传统盟友和中、俄等国家的政策上出现了明显的变化。这既是由杜特尔特个人领导风格决定的,也与菲律宾国内环境密切相关。国内环境影响了杜特尔特的认知和利益判断,也减少了可能的选择。本文试图理解杜特尔特政府执政一年以来菲中关系发生的细微变化。菲中关系完全不是西方和菲律宾媒体一直刻画的陌生关系,两国拥有诸多共通之处,并可以借此深化共同利益。此外,本文也试图分析两国国内所面临的问题,最终考察杜特尔特的外交政策声明会如何影响东盟的政治和经济走向。

Since his inauguration, President Duterte has brought outstanding changes to the foreign policy of Philippines.Particularly, there have emerged major changes on Philippines’ relations with its traditional allies such as U.S.and with big countries such as China and Russia. These changes are both shaped by the personal style of leadership of Duterte himself,and closely interrelated to the domestic environment of Philippines.The domestic environment influences Duterte’s perceptions and intereat-related judgments,but at the same time, it limits Duterte’s policy options This paper takes an effort to understand the subtle changes of the China-Philippines relations in the past year since Duterte’s inauguration.As a matter of fact,the China-Philippines is not the kind of strange relations described by the media in the west, but a kind of familiar relations in which both countries share many similarities,so they can deepen their common interests In addition,this paper also takes an analysis over the respective domestic problems of these two countries,and observes the possible influence that Duterte’s foreign policy declaration will pose on ASEAN’s political and economic trends.