新中国70年西北地区工业发展与政策评价——基于低碳经济的视角

Evaluation of Industrial Development and Policies in Northwestern China in the Past 70 Years from the Perspective of Low-carbon Economy

在回顾新中国成立70年来西北地区工业发展历程的基础上,使用双重差分模型评估了西北地区低碳工业园区政策对工业低碳发展的影响,并进行了相应的机制检验。结论表明,低碳工业园区政策对西北地区的工业发展与低碳化存在显著的促进作用,基于离散双重差分模型和双重差分倾向得分匹配方法的稳健性检验结果与上述结论无显著差异。机制验证表明,西北地区的低碳政策实践主要通过调整能源消费结构、激励低碳技术研发与应用两条路径促进工业低碳发展,而短期的产业结构合理化对工业低碳发展暂无显著影响。在西北地区未来的工业发展中,应当从数量与效率两个层面进一步降低对化石能源的依赖程度,利用全球清洁发展机制与自主研发手段构建低碳发展体系。同时应当注重长期的产业结构高级化,不断提升西北地区的低碳工业发展水平。

Based on a review of the industrial development in northwestern China since the People's Republic of China was founded 70 years ago,this paper adopts Difference-in-Differences(DID)model to evaluate the influence of low-carbon industrial park policy on low-carbon industrial development in northwestern China,and to carry out the corresponding mechanism tests.The conclusion shows that the policy has significantly promoted the development and low carbonization of northwestern China’s industries,which substantially conforms with the robustness test results based on DID model and Propensity Score Matching-DID(PSMDID).Mechanism tests show that low-carbon policy practice in northwestern China mainly promotes lowcarbon industrial development by means of adjusting energy consumption structure and encouraging low-carbon technology’s development and application while short-term rationalization of industrial structure has no conspicuous impact on low-carbon industrial development.In the prospective industrial development in northwestern China,the dependence on fossil energy shall be further mitigated in terms of both quantity and efficiency,and clean global development mechanism and independent research and development means shall be employed to build a low-carbon development system.Meanwhile,more attention shall be paid to longterm advancement of industrial structure so as to constantly enhance the level of low-carbon industry development in northwestern China.