项目组合脆性风险分析及其控制策略

The Analysis of the Brittleness Risk in Project Portfolio and its Control Strategy

项目间复杂的交互关系使得项目组合具有典型的复杂系统特征。脆性作为复杂系统的固有属性,它的存在是客观的,对项目组合脆性风险进行研究具有重要意义。在对项目间的交互关系进行分析的基础上,从单一项目(个体维)、项目间的脆性结构(结构维)和项目组合管理环境(环境维)之间的相互影响出发,基于系统动力学理论建立项目组合脆性风险影响因素间的因果关系循环图,基于脆性熵变理论提出项目组合脆性风险的控制策略。

The existence of complex interaction between projects makes the project portfolio have the typical characteristics of complex systems.As an inherent attribute of complex systems,the brittleness exists objectively,so it is of great significance to study the brittleness risk of project portfolio.On the basis of analyzing the interaction between projects,starting from the interaction effects among the single project(individual dimension),the brittleness aggregation structure(structural dimension)and the portfolio management environment(environmental dimension),based on the theory of system dynamics,the causality cycle diagram of various influencing factors of portfolio brittleness risk is established.The control strategy of brittleness risk in project portfolio is proposed based on the theory of brittleness entropy.