基于ARIMA模型的湖南省卫生总费用趋势预测及分析

Trend prediction and composition analysis of total health expenditure based on ARIMA model in Hunan province

基于湖南省2000-2017年卫生总费用数据,运用ARIMA模型,预测2018-2022年湖南省政府卫生支出、社会卫生支出、个人卫生支出总量及费用结构。结果显示:2018-2022年湖南省卫生总费用趋于稳步增长;政府卫生投入进一步增加,社会卫生支出呈下降趋势,个人卫生支出的控制压力较大。要促进湖南省卫生事业协调发展,应精准政府卫生投入,控制医疗费用的不合理上涨,同时优化卫生筹资结构,完善多层次医疗保障体系,降低居民个人医疗负担。

Based on the total health expenditure data of Hunan Province from 2000 to 2017, using ARIMA model, this paper forecasts the total health expenditure, social health expenditure, personal health expenditure and cost structure of Hunan province from 2018 to 2022. The results show that: From 2018 to 2022, the total health expenditure of Hunan province tends to increase steadily;the government’s health investment is further increased, the social health expenditure is in a downward trend, and the control pressure of personal health expenditure is greater. In order to promote the coordinated development of health services in Hunan province, we should focus on the government’s health investment, control the unreasonable increase of medical expenses, optimize the health financing structure, improve the multi-level medical security system, and reduce the individual medical burden of residents.